Strategic Bet Evaluation Template

A strategic bet has high uncertainty, high potential payoff, and requires a fundamentally different approach than incremental product development. Regular initiatives improve what already exists. Strategic bets create something new or enter new territory. The key differentiator is the risk profile: if the team is 90% confident in the outcome, it is not a bet.

One to two at most. Strategic bets require focused attention and senior leadership involvement. Running three or more bets simultaneously dilutes resources and attention. Most of the team's capacity should be dedicated to the core product. Bets should consume 10-20% of total engineering capacity.

A senior product leader (VP or Director) with organizational authority to mobilize resources and make trade-off decisions. Individual PMs can propose bets, but execution requires cross-functional coordination that needs leadership-level ownership.

Revisit the thesis with fresh data. If new evidence supports the thesis despite the kill criteria being met, you can propose a modified bet with new milestones and updated kill criteria. But the default should be to kill. The burden of proof is on the team proposing continuation, not on the data suggesting termination.

Transparently. Share what the team learned, why the bet was killed, and what the next step is. Frame it as disciplined decision-making, not failure. The worst outcome is for the organization to learn that bets are quietly swept under the rug when they do not work. That kills future willingness to take smart risks.