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Assumption Mapping Workshop Template
An assumption mapping and risk assessment workshop template for product teams. Includes a 2x2 risk matrix, structured exercises for surfacing and...
Updated 2026-03-04
Assumption Mapping Workshop
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Frequently Asked Questions
When should we run an assumption mapping workshop?+
Run it at the start of any initiative where the team is about to commit 4+ weeks of engineering effort. It is especially useful after a [product vision workshop](/templates/product-vision-workshop-template) when the team has aligned on direction but has not yet validated the underlying assumptions. It is also valuable when the team inherits a project from another team and needs to pressure-test the original hypotheses.
How many assumptions should we surface?+
Aim for 15-25 total across the four categories. Fewer than 10 means the team is not thinking critically enough. More than 30 means the scope is too broad for one session. If you hit 30+, narrow the initiative scope or split into two sessions for different aspects of the initiative.
What if the team disagrees about where to plot an assumption?+
Disagreement about placement is the point. If one person thinks an assumption has strong evidence and another thinks it is a guess, that disagreement reveals an information gap. Ask the person who rated it "high evidence" to share their data. If they cannot, the assumption moves left on the evidence axis. Use the [Product Discovery Handbook](/discovery-guide) for research methods that can fill evidence gaps.
What types of experiments work for testing assumptions?+
Match the experiment type to the assumption category. Desirability assumptions: fake door tests, landing pages, user interviews, surveys. Viability assumptions: pricing page tests, willingness-to-pay interviews, financial modeling. Feasibility assumptions: technical spikes, proof-of-concept builds. Usability assumptions: prototype tests, first-click tests, unmoderated usability sessions. The fastest experiments take 1-2 days (fake door, data analysis). The slowest take 2-3 weeks (interview series, prototype builds).
What do we do if an experiment invalidates a riskiest assumption?+
This is the best possible outcome. You saved weeks or months of building the wrong thing. Three options: (1) Pivot the approach to avoid the invalidated assumption. (2) Reduce scope to a version that does not depend on the assumption. (3) Kill the initiative and redirect resources. The PM should present the experiment results to stakeholders with a recommendation. Use the [RICE Calculator](/tools/rice-calculator) to re-score the initiative given the new information. ---
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